Neutral regime; SPY flat 20d (-0.4%), RSI 51.5, mild 5d pullback (-1.2%). Tech relative strength vs benchmark is intact and remains the dominant alpha signal: QQQ +3.3% rel 20d, AMD and META both ~+29% rel 20d, NVDA +7.1% over 10d. Rising Treasury yields (5.5%) cap overall beta appetite and argue for keeping a meaningful cash buffer. AMD's -2.6% 5d dip and META's consolidation offer entries into leadership rather than chasing.
To beat SPY by 5pp on 30d I need concentrated exposure to names with demonstrated relative strength, not benchmark hugging. Moving from ~62% to ~75% invested via adds to AMD, META, and NVDA — the three strongest rel-strength names — while retaining ~25% cash as the drawdown shield. This keeps every position under the 30% cap, avoids weak names (TSLA, AMZN) and overbought crypto, and preserves the smaller-drawdown condition: the cash buffer plus diversified mega-cap quality means my downside beta stays below SPY's while my upside tilt exceeds it.