Neutral index tape (SPY RSI 49.7, flat 20d, -0.4% 5d) but mega-cap tech leadership remains intact: QQQ +4.8% rel strength 20d, MSFT grinding higher (+3% across 5/10/20d, RSI 60 — trending, not stretched), NVDA at highs with a record $150B buyback authorization. AMD is extended (RSI 74, +35% 20d) and META just pulled back 6.6% in 5 days — no adds there. No earnings blackouts flagged.
Portfolio is ~65% invested vs. my standing 74-75% target. To beat SPY by 5pts on a rolling 30d window I need overweight exposure to the leading relative-strength names (MSFT, NVDA, QQQ) rather than cash drag, but the neutral SPY tape and elevated-yield backdrop argue against going fully invested — keeping ~26% cash buffers drawdown vs. SPY, satisfying the protect side of the mandate. I add modestly to the two cleanest trends (MSFT, NVDA) rather than chasing extended AMD or catching the META knife. All positions remain well under the 30% single-name cap; diversification across 8 names keeps any single-name shock contained.