Risk-on regime with tech (QQQ) strongly outperforming SPY over 5/10/20 days. Leadership names AMD/META are parabolic (RSI 82-86) and dangerous to chase, but secondary momentum names (NVDA, TSLA) have strong trends with neutral RSI. AMZN is the clear laggard with deteriorating relative strength. Rising yields are a background risk, arguing for keeping a cash buffer rather than full deployment.
To beat SPY by 5pp in a risk-on tape I need a growth overweight, so I rotate capital from the weakest holding (AMZN) into trend-strong/RSI-neutral names (NVDA, TSLA) plus QQQ beta. I deliberately avoid the overbought parabolic leaders (AMD, META) because a snapback there would violate the smaller-drawdown condition. ~22% cash buffer plus diversification across 7 positions caps drawdown vs SPY while the QQQ/NVDA/TSLA tilt provides the relative-return edge.